In 30 seconds
- Tropical Pacific surface water is more than 3 degrees above normal, a very strong El Nino that a federal climate scientist called likely unprecedented.
- The forecast gives a 77% chance of low to normal snow from March to May 2027 near Vernon, and an early melt is likely.
- Penticton is still under Stage 2 watering limits. Its target is a 20% cut; residents cut about 13% in June.
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| tropical Pacific surface water above normal | +3°C |
| chance of low to normal spring snow near Vernon | 77% |
| Penticton's Stage 2 water-saving target | 20% |
| what Penticton residents saved in June | 13% |
The outlook
Hayley Dosser, a scientist with the Canadian Centre for Climate Services, told Vernon council this month that the El Nino building since September is in the very strong range and likely to be unprecedented. Winter is expected to be warmer than normal across B.C., with more rain and mixed precipitation and fewer big snowfalls. The clearer picture for snowpack should come around December 1.
For March to May 2027 near Vernon, the forecast gives a 77 per cent chance of low to normal snow water equivalent, and an earlier than normal melt is likely. A thin snowpack that melts early leaves less water in lakes and creeks by midsummer.
Where Penticton stands
Penticton is still under Stage 2 watering restrictions, with no end date set. The city asks for a 20 per cent cut in water use. Odd numbered addresses water on Tuesdays and Saturdays, even numbered on Wednesdays and Sundays. In June, residents cut about 13 per cent.
| Cut in water use | |
|---|---|
| Target | 20% |
| Saved in June | 13% |
City of Penticton water restrictions page, read November 14, 2026 (June 2026 data).
We asked Penticton to publish its full 2026 water-saving results so residents can see what worked. The petition closes November 21.
What it means for the trades
A dry year changes the work. Irrigation contractors and landscapers will see more demand for drip systems, smart controllers and drought tolerant planting, and less for thirsty lawns. Plumbers get leak repairs and low-flow fixtures. Builders planning summer work near forests may face fire season restrictions again.
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How we did this
The outlook is from Dosser's presentation to Vernon council as reported by the Penticton Western News. The restriction details and the June result are from the City of Penticton. The Okanagan Basin Water Board has also warned of a warm, dry 2027, as reported by Castanet.